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John P. Walters and Elbridge Colby take part in a debate at Hudson Institute in Washington, DC, on April 24, 2023. (Madeline Mills/Hudson Institute)
Earlier this week, Hudson hosted a debate on whether supporting Ukraine against Russia would deter China from invading Taiwan. President and CEO John P. Walters explained why those calling for the United States to abandon Ukraine and immediately pivot to Asia fail to account for the bigger strategic picture.
Meanwhile, Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu explained in his latest Re: Ukraine military situation report that the US may only have a few months to ensure Ukraine can regain its territorial sovereignty—and deter imperialist expansion elsewhere.
Key Insights
1. The outcome in Ukraine will shape whether the US and its allies intervene in Taiwan.
US victory in Ukraine is essential for generating support for Taiwan at home. If the US cannot sustain material assistance for Ukraine—a state it recognizes—how can the American public be expected to shed blood for Taiwan—which US policy considers to be part of China? It is more likely that isolationism would blossom and overwhelm the pro-Taiwan caucus. Moreover, US victory in Ukraine is crucial for winning the competition for allies. Allies and adversaries alike see Ukraine as a test case of the depth of US commitment to its partners.
2. The strategic reality is that supporting Ukraine helps the US against China.
None of the key assets needed to defend Taiwan are in Ukraine, and they will not be in the near future. Most of the weapons the US has sent to Ukraine so far are Army assets that would have limited use in a Taiwan war. Crucial naval, air, space, and cyberspace resources remain with US forces and in US warehouses. Plus, providing Kyiv with the weapons to win helps the US address its own defense industrial base shortfalls and ensures that China will not be able to rely on Russian support in a future conflict over Taiwan.
3. We should remember that Xi Jinping and the CCP fear the people of China.
It is estimated that the CCP spends more on repressing its own citizens than on its imperialist military forces. The US should speak directly to the people of China, recognize their aspirations, and let them know that the US is their ally in opposition to the CCP’s genocidal oligarchy.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
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Russia and China Are a Package Deal Following up on this debate, Hudson President and CEO John P. Walters appeared on the Hugh Hewitt Show to discuss why the single biggest thing the US can do to deter China is defeat Russia. |
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Empowering Ukraine Prepares Us for China In a new policy memo, Hudson Senior Fellow Rebeccah Heinrichs explains why ending support for Ukraine’s defense would not lead to a swift pivot to the Pacific or expedite weapons deliveries to Taiwan, and lists five ways the US can continue arming Ukraine while bolstering Taiwan’s defense. |
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China Insider #20 | Is Ukraine a Distraction from Taiwan? Hudson China Center Director Miles Yu explains why China is much more likely to succeed in Taiwan if the US allows Putin’s war in Ukraine to fracture the Western alliance structure on the latest episode of China Insider. |
