Kyiv Vows Response to Deadly Russian Missiles Strikes

Russia will “face a fair response” (Reuters) to missile attacks that killed at least nineteen people (AP) in central and southeastern Ukraine last night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on the social media platform Telegram. The missile barrage was the first to target Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv in nearly two months, though no casualties were reported there. Most of the deaths occurred at an apartment building in central Ukraine, far from the war’s front lines, and three children were among those killed.

Ukraine’s defense minister said today that the country’s forces are ready to launch (AFP) a long-awaited ground counteroffensive that aims to take back Russia-occupied territories. Ukraine’s foreign minister said the latest strikes on civilians showed that Russia is not interested in a peace deal.

Analysis

“Achieving tactical surprise in the opening hours of the offensive will be crucial, since it increases the chance of local fire superiority and an advantageous correlation of forces, at least for a short period of time,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Franz-Stefan Gady writes for Foreign Policy.

“A Ukrainian path to victory is entirely plausible—although not as complete a victory as Kyiv and its supporters want,” Defense Priorities’ Rajan Menon writes for Foreign Affairs.

Europe

Pope Expected to Raise Concerns About War, Migration During Visit to Hungary

Pope Francis will meet with Ukrainian war refugees today while visiting Hungary (BBC), where he is expected to spread a pro-migration message. The pope and Hungarian President Viktor Orbán have both called for peace in Ukraine, though Pope Francis’s statements more clearly stress Ukraine’s right to self-defense.

This In Brief shows where Ukrainian refugees are going.

Pacific Rim

Chinese, Indian Defense Chiefs Seek to De-escalate Border Tensions

Li Shangfu’s visit to India (Bloomberg) yesterday marked the first time that a Chinese defense minister had traveled to India since 2020, when Chinese and Indian troops clashed in a deadly skirmish at their countries’ shared Himalayan border.

China/Japan: China’s ambassador to Japan said a Japanese employee of a pharmaceutical firm is being detained in China on suspicion of espionage (Nikkei). Tokyo has lodged an official protest over the incident.

South and Central Asia

UN Security Council Condemns Taliban’s Ban on Women UN Employees

The fifteen-member Security Council unanimously passed (UN News) a resolution calling for the immediate reversal of the ban, which the Taliban implemented earlier this month.

China/Pakistan: A Pakistani court ruled that a Chinese national accused of blasphemy committed no wrongdoing (Bloomberg). The man has been granted bail until his case concludes, which could take several months.

Middle East and North Africa

Tens of Thousands Rally in Jerusalem to Support Netanyahu’s Judicial Overhaul

The mass demonstrations last night showed support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to overhaul Israel’s justice system. It prompted opponents of the reforms to pledge further protests (Haaretz) of their own.

UK/Yemen: Authorities from the United Kingdom (UK) said they are investigating an “incident” in which unidentified assailants fired at a UK vessel (Bloomberg) off the coast of Yemen.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Warring Sudanese Factions Extend Cease-Fire for Seventy-Two Hours

Neighboring countries as well as the United States, United Kingdom, and United Nations mediated the extension (BBC), which has not curtailed heavy fighting in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum. Thousands of people have attempted to flee the country in recent days.

Burkina Faso: At least thirty-three soldiers were killed (Reuters) when insurgents attacked a military outpost in the country’s east. The army said its fighters killed dozens of the attackers.

Americas

Upcoming Paraguayan Election to Highlight Taiwan Policies

Efraín Alegre, the opposition’s chief presidential candidate in Sunday’s national elections, has vowed to review Paraguay’s diplomatic relations (AP) with Taiwan if elected. Paraguay is the only country in South America that officially recognizes Taiwan.

U.S./Colombia/Guatemala: U.S. officials announced the establishment of migrant processing centers (Politico) in Colombia and Guatemala that will screen northbound migrants for refugee resettlement. More centers will be set up in other countries as Washington seeks to stem migrant flows that are expected to increase when pandemic-related border policies expire next month.

This Backgrounder looks at northbound migration across the Colombia-Panama border.

United States

White House Security Advisor: U.S. China Policy Aims for De-risking, Not Decoupling

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan gave a speech on Washington’s economic policy toward Beijing that echoed messaging (FP) from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and European Union officials, who have argued against full economic decoupling from China. Sullivan’s speech came after some of Washington’s European allies expressed concerns about the hawkishness of U.S. economic policy toward China.

CFR’s A. Michael Spence explains why some U.S. and Chinese policymakers have embraced the logic of decoupling.

Friday Editor’s Pick

ProPublica reveals how blocked railroad crossings are increasingly making it harder for U.S. children to get to school safely.

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