Dear MoveOn member,

Today, for the first time in history, a presidential campaign will run ads
on national TV during the Super Bowl.^1

In fact, Donald Trump's re-election campaign is paying for not one but two
ads to air during the Super Bowl, an event expected to have an audience of
at least 100 million viewers.^2 More people watch the Super Bowl than any
other TV broadcast—and by a lot.

Trump's two ads will cost $11 million—a drop in the bucket for his
campaign, which entered 2020 with $102.7 million in cash on hand.^3,4

And this is just Trump's opening salvo. A Democratic strategist recently
told The New York Times that because of his dark money backers, Trump will
have "near unlimited resources" to use for his re-election.^5

While Trump's early money advantage in the general election grows,
Democratic candidates are still competing in the Democratic primary, with
candidates having to spend tens of millions of dollars to compete against
each other in the primary. 

Meanwhile, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll found that Trump is favored
to win re-election by 49-43 percent.^6 The poll tested Trump against six
potential Democratic match-ups and found that registered voters are
"roughly split" between supporting Trump and backing the Democratic
candidates. No Democratic candidate had a statistically significant
advantage against Trump. And Democratic strategists are growing
increasingly concerned that Trump's early money advantage could grow
"insurmountable."^7

We cannot wait until the Democratic presidential nomination is decided
because it will be too late for us to overcome Trump's early advantage.
MoveOn is working NOW to build the massive infrastructure that we'll need
to defeat Trump in the 2020 general election, end Republican control of
the Senate, and take back power to put our country on a path toward a
better future. And we need you with us.



Will you chip in $5 a month, so that no matter who wins the
Democratic presidential nomination, we are prepared to defeat Donald Trump
and end Republican control of the Senate in November? 

[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly to help MoveOn defeat Donald Trump and end
Republican control of the Senate.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.



The task before us is enormous. An incumbent president has not been
defeated since 1992. We know we can do this. But it's going to be the
challenge of a lifetime.

We live in a divided country. One in which Fox News, Trump, and the
Republican Party will do and say whatever they think is needed to
win—including flat-out cheating and lying. Republicans just proved that,
once again, when they voted to bring Trump's Senate impeachment trial to a
close without calling a single witness.

That's where MoveOn comes in. As former Labor Secretary Robert Reich says,
"No organization in America has a better track record of success in
developing cutting-edge strategies to get out the vote and win elections
than MoveOn."

MoveOn has the team and the tools to make a huge impact in this year's
elections. And together with MoveOn members, we can help Democratic
candidates win—even if Trump and the GOP raise more money than us.

We can put people power, instead of big money, at the heart of our
campaigning and win.

But, nevertheless, we will still need to raise tens of millions of dollars
from MoveOn members this year to run a competitive program that can win. 

As Barack Obama said in the 2012 presidential election—which we won
because small-dollar donors stepped up—"We can be outspent and still
win—but we can't be outspent 10 to 1 and still win."^8

So here's the question, John: Will we be buried by Trump and
the right and unable to compete? Or will we have the resources necessary
to run a people-powered operation powerful enough to succeed at our
biggest challenge yet—unseating an incumbent president and ending
Republican control of the Senate? 

In the past, MoveOn members have funded massive, winning campaign
operations—like our Real Voter Voices program, which was 400% more cost
effective than TV ads at getting out the vote and helped end Republican
control of the House in 2018. Now, we must go even bigger. But we can only
do that with your help.



Will you start a $5-a-month donation today to help MoveOn
defeat Donald Trump and end Republican control of the Senate?

[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly to help MoveOn defeat Donald Trump and end
Republican control of the Senate.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.



John, this situation requires urgent action. It might feel
like Election Day is far away, but the truth is that every single day
until November 3, unchecked money will flow to Trump and the Republicans
to blanket the airwaves in swing states.

Today's Super Bowl ads are just the latest, most visible example of
Trump's huge early money advantage. We must also respond to:

* A brand-new report showing that Trump is outstripping Democrats in
digital organizing by unprecedented margins. Trump's campaign has
spent tens of millions of dollars on ads designed to turn his
impeachment into a political advantage with his base—to rile them up
and turn them out to vote in November.^9
* New, terrifying, and unprecedented advertising efforts from the
Republicans. Trump and his enablers are using new technologies like
geofencing—which uses cellphone data about who, for example, attends
church and then targets them in get-out-the-vote efforts.^10 And they
are taking full advantage of Facebook's lie-friendly ad policy, which
allows the Trump campaign and its dark money network to run ads
designed to confuse voters, spread conspiracy theories, stoke anger,
suppress the vote, and worse.^11
* A Republican candidate laser-focused on the general election RIGHT
NOW, who knows exactly where to concentrate the campaign's efforts in
order to win. The presidential election in 2020, just like in 2016,
will most likely be decided by a few hundred thousand votes spread
across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and
Arizona, which will tip the Electoral College to the winner. Recent
New York Times polling shows a statistical dead heat or even an
advantage for Trump in every single one of these states.^12 And while
Democrats are fighting for the nomination, Trump is laser-focused on
those general election states.

And on top of all that, remember: Trump is currently favored to win
re-election.^13 Yet, 62% of MoveOn members think Democrats are "very
likely" or "somewhat likely" to win the White House in 2020, according to
our survey from last week. Only 7% think Trump is "very likely" or
"likely" to win.

If the belief that we will win is grounded in hope—and followed up by an
unprecedented surge in action: volunteering, donating, and staying engaged
in politics all the way through November—then we can indeed win. On the
other hand, if we become complacent or allow ourselves to assume that
Trump can't win a second term, then WE WILL LOSE. 



MoveOn has large-scale plans to combat Donald Trump's deceitful efforts
head-on. But to pull off these plans, we must begin closing Trump's early
money advantage and work to build our elections program RIGHT NOW. Will
you start a $5-a-month donation TODAY to help MoveOn defeat
Trump and end Republican control of the Senate in November?

[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly to help MoveOn defeat Donald Trump and end
Republican control of the Senate.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.



Thanks for all you do.

–Allison, Manny, Brian, Corinne, and the rest of the team

Sources:

1. "Super Bowl ads offer no respite from 2020 presidential race," Los
Angeles Times, January 31, 2020
[link removed]

2. "Watch Bloomberg and Trump's Very Different Super Bowl Ads," The New
York Times, January 30, 2020
[link removed]

3. Ibid.

4. "Bloomberg and Trump Buy Super Bowl Ads at $10 Million Each," The New
York Times, January 7, 2020
[ [link removed] ][link removed]

5. "Trump's Digital Advantage Is Freaking Out Democratic Strategists," The
New York Times, January 29, 2020
[ [link removed] ][link removed]

6. "Trump begins reelection year more competitive against Democrats than
he was three months ago, Post-ABC poll finds," The Washington Post,
January 27, 2020
[link removed]

7. "Democratic Strategists Set Up $75 Million Digital Campaign to Counter
Trump," The New York Times, November 4, 2019
[link removed]

8. "Obama's money plea: 'we can't be outspent 10 to 1 and still win,'" The
Blaze, June 26, 2012
[ [link removed] ][link removed]

9. "How Trump is using Facebook to amplify his fight against impeachment,"
Vox, November 14, 2019
[link removed]

10. "Trump's Geofencing Could Be a Potent Political Issue," Washington
Monthly, January 29, 2020
[link removed]

11. "Trump is taking full advantage of Facebook's lie-friendly ad policy,"
Fast Company, January 24, 2020
[link removed]

12. "One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in
Battlegrounds," The New York Times, November 4, 2019
[ [link removed] ][link removed]

13. "Trump begins reelection year more competitive against Democrats than
he was three months ago, Post-ABC poll finds," The Washington Post,
January 27, 2020
[link removed]



Want to support our work? The MoveOn community will work every moment, day
by day and year by year, to resist Trump's agenda, contain the damage,
defeat hate with love, and begin the process of swinging the nation's
pendulum back toward sanity, decency, and the kind of future that we must
never give up on. And to do it we need your ongoing support, now more than
ever. Will you stand with us?



[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in $5 a month.

[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.




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