Biden Is Emboldening China to Invade Taiwan
by Gordon G. Chang • April 17, 2023 at 5:00 am
Given the right American policies, China's regime can be deterred.
For decades, the United States has tried to manage the situation across the Taiwan Strait by not angering Beijing.
White House and administration officials, both anonymously and on the record, contradicted the president [that the U.S. would send troops if there was an attack] on all four occasions. The Chinese certainly do not see firmness in the Biden administration but disarray.
This disarray has almost certainly emboldened Beijing to act even more aggressively.
So, what must Biden do at this late date to reestablish deterrence?
Washington should offer to recognize Taipei as the legitimate government of "Taiwan" if it wants America to do so, offer a mutual defense treaty to Taipei, on an emergency basis begin moving weapons and supplies to the island, and base troops there as a tripwire.
Many will say these steps—similar ones on the Korean peninsula have worked—are risky.
Three decades of misguided Taiwan and China policies have left Washington with no risk-free options.... [T]he most risky and dangerous option is to continue with policies that created this situation in the first place.
Beijing's long delay in reporting Ladakh [India] casualties suggests the Communist Party would be hesitant to fight to take Taiwan. China, in short, can be deterred by the prospect of massive casualties—or maybe even just a few of them.
Ultimately, the Biden administration, to establish deterrence, must possess the forces in the field to inflict casualties on China. "[T]he United States has no choice but to initiate a crash program to rebuild a regional/tactical nuclear deterrent, from nuclear artillery shells to short-, medium-, and intermediate-range nuclear-tipped missiles," Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center told Gatestone.
In the Cold War in Europe, America deterred a militarily superior Soviet Union with its announced willingness to use nuclear weapons, and Ronald Reagan's deployment of the nuclear-tipped Pershing II missile held back an aggressive Moscow. Biden, however, has made it clear that he abhors nukes.
Biden, therefore, better come up with a plan quick.
The Eastern Theater Command of China's People's Liberation Army just declared it is now "ready to fight." Biden, on the other hand, does not appear ready to reestablish deterrence in an era of Chinese aggression and belligerence.
China just substantially reduced a three-day no-fly zone it had declared northeast of Taiwan. The zone, originally scheduled to run from the 16th to the 18th of this month, was scaled back to just 27 minutes on the 16th.
China's Maritime Safety Administration said the closure was due to "aerospace activities." Apparently, the initial stage of a Chinese space launch vehicle will be falling back to earth at that time.
Taiwan said it had objected to the duration of the Chinese zone as initially announced. Others, including aviation authorities, complained to Beijing as well.
The substantial reduction in duration shows that China, despite protestations to the contrary, reacts to pressure. Can the international community pressure China into abandoning its push to absorb the Republic of China, as the island is formally known?