You recently talked about how Trump could fare over DeSantis in 2024. What do you see to indicate that — and does that still stand with the recent indictment news?
As I look back through history, I’m looking for analogs. What can the past tell us about the future? In the particular case we’re talking about, Donald Trump is polling in the low to mid 40s in terms of his support in the national polls to be the Republican nominee in 2024. So the question is, what percentage of the time did people that polled in that position end up winning a nomination? Turns out, it’s the majority of the time. It’s not necessarily the largest sample size, but it’s about eight times they’ve polled in that position, and about six of those times they’ve gone on and won the nomination. Compare that to someone in Ron DeSantis’ position. How many times has someone been polling in his position and gone on to win the nomination? It’s about 40% of the time. DeSantis has a real shot of winning the nomination. What I would say is that anyone who is not DeSantis or Trump, their chances of winning the nomination are quite small. Is it conceivable? Absolutely. Is it something I’d bet on? Absolutely not.
As it relates to the indictment, I’m not sure it changes much. Most Republicans have said in polls that they believe the investigations against the former president are a witch hunt and do not believe the allegations in the alleged hush money scheme in New York are all that serious. Moreover, the poll data we do have suggests that Trump’s lead over DeSantis has only grown over the last month.
What is something you wish more people understood about polling?
Polling is great for politics and for elections, but it can be useful for a heck of a lot more. It’s imperative that people understand how the American public feels on any number of issues, well outside of the topics mentioned above.
How do you make data accessible and compelling for audiences?
My strategy is to tell them what they need to hear, and nothing more. It’s not just the methodology that you use that is key in my mind. It’s really the questions that you ask and try to answer. I’d much rather have an interesting question that is not that statistical than a question that’s not that interesting and then have 10,000 different models and make it really complex. If you can’t show it in a correlation plot, chances are it’s not something that should be appearing on air or on digital.
What are your favorite kinds of stories to work on?
I love stories that really make people think, learn something and smile. If I can make people feel like what they read or saw on TV was worth their time, then I’ve done my job. A few favorites would be my piece on the partisan breakdown of vaccine coverage during the Covid pandemic and fun stories such as football (Go Bills!) and anything related to Daylight Saving Time. At the end of the day, I just want to add value to the lives of our viewers.