[1]

March 31, 2023

This month’s newsletter features updates to several Iran Watch resources
tracking Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. Over the last year, Iran has
unveiled new ballistic and cruise missile models and launched the Ghaem-100
space launch vehicle. On the nuclear side, Iran’s break-out timeline for a
small nuclear arsenal continues to shrink as the country expands its
stockpile of enriched uranium and brings more advanced centrifuges into
operation.

The newsletter also includes profiles of an Iranian bank and its overseas
affiliates that have supported Iran’s military industries, as well as news
about Iran’s newest land-attack cruise missile, its back-and-forth with the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the Agency’s investigation
into the presence of nuclear material at undeclared sites, and Iran’s
diplomatic agreement with Saudi Arabia. Additions to the Iran Watch library
include official documents and statements relating to Iran’s nuclear
program, drone transfers, sanctions evasion efforts, and human rights
abuses.

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PUBLICATIONS

[4]Amir Ali Hajizadeh and the Paveh cruise missile

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force commander Amir Ali
Hajizadeh introduces the Paveh cruise missile. (Credit: Islamic Republic of
Iran Broadcasting via YouTube)

Timeline | [5]Iran Missile Milestones: 1984-2023

Since the beginning of 2022, Iran has added several new ballistic and
cruise missiles to its arsenal and tested the Ghaem-100 space launch
vehicle. It also continued shipping missile components to Yemen’s Houthi
rebels, multiple shipments of which were interdicted by Western navies.
This timeline records notable milestones on the path of Iran’s missile
development, and a [6]related table tracks the various missiles in Iran’s
arsenal.

[7]VIEW THE TIMELINE

[8]Iran's nuclear facility at Natanz

Iran’s nuclear facility at Natanz. (Image credit: Google, Image 2022 CNES /
Airbus.)

Report | [9]Iran's Nuclear Timetable: The Weapon Potential

Over the last few years, Iran has expanded its stockpile of enriched
uranium, increased the enrichment level of that stockpile, and brought more
advanced centrifuges into operation. As a result, the amount of time it
would take Iran to enrich enough uranium for five implosion-type warheads,
either overtly or at secret sites, has fallen dramatically. This report
estimates Iran’s break-out timeline based on new data in the IAEA’s latest
report, and a [10]related table tracks Iran’s deployment of centrifuges at
its declared nuclear sites.

[11]READ THE REPORT

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

Iranian commercial banks have used their overseas affiliates, many of which
remain in operation, to evade sanctions and provide financial support to
Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

[12]Bank Mellat

An Iranian commercial bank; facilitated the movement of hundreds of
millions of dollars for Iran's nuclear program between 2003 and 2007;
provided banking services to the [13]Atomic Energy Organization of Iran
(AEOI) and [14]Novin Energy Company.

[15]LEARN MORE

[16]Europaisch-Iranische Handelsbank AG

A German bank focusing on international business with Iran; in 2007 and in
2009, in cooperation with Bank Mellat, facilitated over $500,000 in
transactions between a weapons exporter and a subsidiary of [17]Iran
Electronics Industries (IEI).

[18]LEARN MORE

[19]First East Export Bank, P.L.C.

A Malaysia-based subsidiary of Bank Mellat; owns [20]Pearl Energy Company
Ltd.

[21]LEARN MORE

IN THE NEWS

[22]

Ali Shamkhani shakes hands with his Saudi counterpart Musaad bin Mohammed
Al Aiban in Beijing. (Credit: IRNA)

[23]Iran, Saudi Arabia Agree to Resume Ties, With China's Help | Associated
Press

March 10, 2023: Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to reestablish diplomatic
relations in a breakthrough mediated by China. In a joint statement, the
two sides agreed to reopen their embassies and exchange ambassadors within
two months.

[24]Iran Agrees to Stop Arming Houthis in Yemen as Part of Pact With Saudi
Arabia | Wall Street Journal

March 16, 2023: Iran agreed to stop illicit weapons shipments to the
Houthis as part of its agreement to re-establish diplomatic relations with
Saudi Arabia, according to U.S. and Saudi officials. The Iranian delegation
to the United Nations declined to comment on the report.

[25]Iran Makes Sweeping Pledge of Cooperation to IAEA Before Board Meeting
| Reuters

March 5, 2023: Following a trip to Tehran, Rafael Grossi, the head of the
IAEA, said that Iranian officials had pledged new cooperation in the
agency's longstanding investigation into uranium particles found at
undeclared sites in Iran. According to Grossi, Iran promised to give the
IAEA access to information, locations, and people relevant to the
investigation. Grossi also said that Iran agreed to allow the
reinstallation of Agency cameras and other monitoring equipment that had
been removed from declared sites in June 2022. However, a spokesman for
Iran's Atomic Energy Organization later said that there had been no
agreement regarding the cameras or access to individuals relevant to the
IAEA investigation into undeclared sites.

[26]Iran Says it Has Developed Long-Range Cruise Missile | Reuters

February 24, 2023: The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Aerospace
Force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, announced that Iran had deployed a new
land-attack cruise missile, called Paveh, with a range of 1,650 kilometers.
The television broadcast included launch footage of the missile.

FROM THE LIBRARY

Iran’s nuclear program advanced, according to IAEA reports, while ongoing
safeguards issues remained unresolved.
* Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, [27]said
during a congressional testimony that Iran could produce the fuel for a
nuclear weapon in less than 15 days, and would only need several months to
build the weapon itself - March 23.
* The IAEA issued two quarterly reports on Iran’s [28]compliance with the
JCPOA and its [29]NPT safeguards commitments ahead of the Agency’s Board of
Governors meeting - February 28 and March 4.
* Also in advance of the Board of Governors meeting, IAEA chief Rafael
Grossi traveled to Tehran seeking Iran’s cooperation on several safeguards
issues. The two sides [30]released a joint statement - March 4.

Western countries sought to disrupt Iranian drone transfers.
* The United Kingdom [31]assessed that Iran continues to send
Shahed-family drones to Russia, whose military has launched at least 71
such drones against Ukraine in March - March 26.
* A non-state group launched an Iranian-made drone against a U.S.-led
coalition base near Hasakah, Syria, killing one American and injuring
several others. The United States [32]responded with airstrikes - March 23.
* The United States announced two rounds of sanctions targeting
procurement networks supplying Iran’s drone program, one operating in
[33]Turkey and the other in [34]China - March 9 and 21.
* One member of the Turkey-based network was extradited to the United
States in 2022, pleaded guilty, and was [35]sentenced to 28 months in
prison - March 21.

The United States took steps to enforce sanctions and export controls
against Iran.
* A federal grand jury issued an [36]indictment against three individuals
and two companies allegedly involved in the export of U.S.-origin dual-use
technology to Iran - March 21.
* The Treasury Department [37]sanctioned a “shadow banking” network
facilitating Iran’s petrochemical trade - March 9.
* A federal grand jury [38]indicted Mehdi Khoshghadam, who is accused of
unlawfully exporting electrical cables and connectors from the United
States to Iran - March 9.

Western governments challenged Iran on human rights abuses and humanitarian
issues.
* In conjunction with International Women’s Day, the [39]European Union,
[40]the United Kingdom, and [41]the United States sanctioned Iranian
officials responsible for serious human rights abuses against women and
girls - March 7 and 8.
* European governments [42]decided to shut down the INSTEX trade
mechanism meant to facilitate trade in humanitarian goods, blaming Iran for
its failure - March 9.
* Australia [43]imposed financial sanctions on 14 individuals and 14
entities responsible for human rights violations in Iran - March 20.

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

Copyright © 2023 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

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