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In the last few weeks we’ve seen politicians from different parties make a number of apparently contradictory claims about GP numbers, all of which are missing at least some context. It is important that politicians use data accurately and transparently.
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak claimed that there were a record number of GPs, while the health secretary, Steve Barclay, told MPs that there were “2,200 more doctors in general practice than before the pandemic”.
But on Wednesday, the party leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, told BBC Breakfast that the “the number of GPs has gone down” since the last election in 2019.
None of these claims—which only relate to GP numbers in England as health spending is devolved in the UK—tell the full story about recent changes in the GP workforce. All of these claims are based on different statistics measuring the number of GPs.
Mr Barclay’s claim about the change in numbers since before the pandemic is correct when looking at the headcount number of GPs, though the figure is slightly lower when you look at the full-time equivalent (FTE) figure, which gives a better idea of staffing levels.
Mr Sunak’s claim about there being a record number of GPs appears to be based on the fact that in August 2022 the total GP headcount and FTE numbers hit a record high. Since then, the numbers have fallen slightly, though this may reflect seasonal factors as GP numbers tend to peak at the end of summer, then fluctuate slightly across the year.
Meanwhile Liberal Democrat claims that GP numbers have actually fallen relate to the number of fully qualified FTE GPs, excluding trainees.
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FACT CHECK
A post shared by thousands of people across social media platforms wrongly claims that the government spends “£17m a year subsidising food in Parliament”.
This is not true. According to reports, this is the three-year cost of catering services in the House of Commons. Last year it cost just over £7.5 million to run the catering service.
The post’s claim that the catering service costs around £30,000 per MP is also misleading, as it ignores the fact that the “subsidised” food and drink is available to thousands of other people.
False or misleading claims about politicians have the potential to affect people’s opinions of individuals, parties or how they choose to vote. We often see these types of claims spread widely online.
The House of Commons has said that as well as 650 MPs, the catering services are also open to around 14,500 other parliamentary pass holders such as MPs staff, House staff, civil servants, contractors, Peers, members of the press and a “large number” of non-pass holding visitors.
In a response to a Freedom of Information request, a spokesperson for the House of Commons said that it does not provide a subsidised catering service “in the commercial sense of the word”.
It’s worth noting that catering services in the Houses of Parliament are run at a loss, which means that while food and drink aren’t directly subsidised, public money is spent on maintaining the system.
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FACT CHECK
Recently, the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, clashed with Labour MP and shadow home office minister Jess Phillips at PMQs.
In a question to the PM, Ms Phillips claimed that the biggest increase in the last ten years in people accessing the modern slavery referral system was “from the huge increase in British adults and children trafficked for sex and crime within Britain”. Mr Sunak then said he would “correct” her, claiming it is “now a minority” of people referred who are from the UK.
Neither of the original claims made by Ms Phillips and Mr Sunak appear to be incorrect, though it depends on exactly what definitions they were using, and there are some unknowns in the data.
Understanding whether the biggest increase in referrals in the last ten years was from British adults and children being trafficked within Britain is complicated as it depends on how you measure the increase. UK nationals accounted for 25% of modern slavery referrals in 2022, compared to just 3% in 2012—though most of the increase over the last 10 years has been non-UK nationals. We’ve not seen data that breaks down referrals by both nationality and location of exploitation.
And Mr Sunak was correct to say that UK nationals are now a minority as according to the latest published data for 2022, UK nationals made up 25% of those referred into the modern slavery system.
But it’s worth noting that in 2022, UK nationals were the second-most referred nationality after Albanians (27%) and looking back to previous years, UK nationals were the most-referred single nationality between 2017 and 2021.
Ministers and other politicians should use statistics and data transparently and responsibly, and quickly correct misleading claims when they are made. It is also important they do not accuse other politicians of misusing data if the figures they’ve used may in fact be accurate.
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