As the U.S.-China relationship becomes more contentious, the possibility of a severe political-military crisis between the two countries is poised to increase in the years ahead. This is especially true given their growing differences over Taiwan and Asian maritime disputes, and the intensifying military jostling that is taking place along China’s coastline.
Meanwhile, the likelihood that any such crisis can be managed effectively by Washington and Beijing is arguably declining in light of deepening suspicions between the two sides, and the continued absence of reliable bilateral crisis management procedures and mechanisms beyond the presence of telephone links.
The shortcomings of U.S.-China crisis management capabilities were most recently on display when former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan and the presence of a Chinese surveillance balloon in U.S airspace were allowed to derail crisis communication dialogues between the two sides, intensify invectives, and suspend plans for the U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken’s first trip to Beijing.
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